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Prediction for CME (2026-05-28T05:53:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-05-28T05:53Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/46440/-1
CME Note: Faint CME observed to the E in STEREO A COR2, and extremely faint in LASCO C2 only resolvable in running difference imagery. The source may be faint dimming in SDO AIA 193 as early as 2026-05-28T05:04Z centered around S38E18 south of AR 14436 (S16E27).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-05-31T12:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/46446/1
Model Inputs:
2026-05-27T22:37:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-30.0, Speed=359.0, HalfAngle=35.0, Time21.5=2026-05-28T07:46Z
2026-05-28T05:53:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-30.0, Lat.=-14.0, Speed=337.0, HalfAngle=38.0, Time21.5=2026-05-28T16:15Z
2026-05-28T09:23:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-14.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=342.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2026-05-28T19:11Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-05-31T12:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Europa Clipper with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-02T23:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-06-01T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260528_074700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.38 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Carina Alden (M2M SWAO) on 2026-05-28T17:37Z

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